2015美国数学建模竞赛优秀论文

Team Control Number

For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________

35943

Problem Chosen

For office use only

F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________

D

2015

Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM/ICM) Summary Sheet

In order to measure a country's level of sustainable development precisely, we establish a evaluation system based on AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). We classify quantities of influential factors into three parts, including economic development, social development and the situation of resources and environment. Then we select 6 to 8 significant indicators of every part. With regard to the practical situation of the country we are focusing on, we are able to build judgment matrixes and obtain the weight of every indicator. Via liner weighting method, we give the definition of comprehensive index of sustainable development. Referring to classifications given by experts, we can judge whether this country is sustainable or not precisely.

In task 2, we choose Cambodia as our target nation. We obtain detailed data from the world bank. Using standardized data of this country, via the process above, we successfully get the comprehensive index is 0.48, which means its sustainable development ability is weak. We notice that industrial value added, enrollment rate in higher learning institutions and other five indicators contribute most to the sustainable development according to our model, so we make policies and plans which focus on the improvement of these aspects, including developing industry and improving social security. We also recommend ICM to assistant Cambodia in these aspects in order to optimize the development.

To solve task 3, we consider several unpredictable factors that may influence sustainable development, such as politics, climate changes and so on. After taking all of these factors into consideration, we predict the value of every indicator in 2020, 2030 and 2034 according to our plans. After calculating, we are delighted that the comprehensive index has grown up to 0.91, meaning this country is quite sustainable. This also reflects that our model and plans are reasonable and correct.